Defending Microsoft and Apple

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:27:54 GMT

Sure, Microsoft and Apple can take care of themselves. Both companies have survived previous predictions of their demise. I do, however, find it interesting that with all the issues going on in the technology world, columnists John Soat (10 Indications Apple is Headed for A Fall, InformationWeek, April 30, 2007) and Paul Strassmann (Is Microsoft Losing Its Grip, Baseline, May 2007) chose to focus on the challenges to these companies.

First Apple. John seemed to be taking a lazy spring afternoon off the creativity train and targeting Apple and writing a top 10 list. Apple remains a consumer darling despite issues with the iPhone (which shipped to great fanfare after Soat predicted it would fail in this article) and lawsuits over patent issues (Apple Hit with iPhone Patent Suite from Disgraced Doc, InformationWeek, August 6, 2007). The stock market is moving down (I just don't want to look right now as my investments ooze money into the abyss) but Apple is a tech stock and tech stocks aren't taking the hit some others have because this time the stock slump isn't about technology, its about banking and mortgages and housing starts. Sure, disposable income may be an issue and tech may get pulled in, but liquidity still looks pretty good. Even renters own iPods. And I don't think the world is feeling sympathy for Bill Gates because of the Apple ads. People think they are funny, and the Gates-like character a bit pathetic, but then they look at Microsoft's income statement and it eases the guilt of their laughter - and let's them know that character is no Bill Gates.

I'm also not worried about Microsoft even after reading what Strassman's analysis reveals as a slow and steady decline in domination. Well, I would say miniscule fluctuations in a pretty impressive track record (yes, I work for Microsoft but as my disclaimer states, they neither approve these posts nor read them before they are written). Microsoft only represented 41% of the revenue in the software industry (among top 407 companies) and its profit 116% of those firms. OK Paul, I get the numbers thing and that CIOs like numbers, but these numbers are pretty good. The profit picture is down from last year but up from 2004. Still mighty impressive.

I appreciate the need for a good headline, but let's take the industry to task on some things it needs to concentrate on, like an over emphasis on ad revenue vs. servicing the world with indexes that are contextually accurate, and great complementary services that fit into the software they already use (rather than yet another service that takes me out of my familiar environment because its just a standalone web experience). Let's talk about the value proposition for distributed computing.

I'm not a huge fan of Software+Services as a marketing slogan because these services, unlike IBM's or HP's are software, not people. So this is really about Software+Software Services. Its just the writer in me.

I do, however, love client PCs and the software they run. I can't imagine going all web ever. Ever! Because I want my personal computing experience. I want to be able to go offline and still write, check spelling, get the rhymes I need for poetry, store-retouch-and-print my photographs, edit movies and create mindmaps. These are all better with the web, but they don't need the web and I NEVER want to be reliant on the web. I want software services to enhance my experience. This is a long way to saying that I'm not worried about the client business being eroded by Google or anyone else, because the client experience is a necessary, and sometimes more satisfying part of the computing experience than the web can deliver precisely becasue it is locally powered.

I have signed up over the last ten years for a number of services that are just gone now. I don't even remember their names as I purged my own memory after the last click to their site revealed their disappearance or the missed memo on their demise. You know, when I click to go to one of those places, I still have my local services to fall back on. My PC still works.

The People-Ready work Microsoft is doing now is it legacy and its DNA. The PC enabled people to do things for themselves - it empowered people to create things on their own computers - from games to spreadsheets to doodles. The web is a powerful communication and connection platform, but it is not indispensable for people doing personal things with their computers (music swapping, for instance, has greatly declined on the web, but swapping USB drives still takes place all the time - you can't do that on the web, only with a client PC).

So I'm not worried about Apple or Microsoft. John and Paul (um, where have I heard that combination before) gave us their Day In the Life analysis, and it was not the tour de force that song proved to be back in 1967. Neither Apple nor Microsoft is committing catastrophic failures like the 110 mph crash of Tara Browne's Lotus that inspired that song. Both companies are evolving, doing their own things, and being pretty consistently innovative after all these years. Apple has its consumers and Microsoft has, well, its consumers. Both sets of consumers love gadgets and personal control of information - and regardless of the hype about both company's struggles against new and aggressive competitors, those competitors have to thrive in niches, not in the core areas in which Apple and Microsoft continue to lead.

The Future of Information Work: Tech Biz

Defending Microsoft and Apple